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Capital Markets Today

Jul 9, 2020

The latest long-term mortgage default projections from many analyst is now hovering around 7%.   This number will be bifurcated by loan product with FHA loans seeing the bulk of the defaults.  However, this number is pure projection and the long term number will depend on

  • Expiration of the supplemental unemployment...


Jun 4, 2020

In April, the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 14.7%, the largest one month increase in history.  It is likely that the unemployment rate hits 20% in May and some forecast a 25% unemployment matching that of the Great Depression rate.

However, the more concerning percentage is the estimate by many economists...


May 29, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis, like the subprime mortgage crisis a decade ago, has sparked major public interventions to stabilize the financial markets. But the Fed isn’t stepping in to bail out the real estate sector — and the big losers are set to be ordinary households.

This is the intro to an article title “Another...


May 22, 2020

For distressed debt buyers, it could be the calm before the storm.  Some deals are floating about with investors pricing them as a sort of reconnaissance exercise to determine the bid/ask levels.

The first wave to hit was leveraged lenders, but most expect a sharp increase in deal flow by the 3rd or 4th quarter...


Apr 16, 2020

In just a matter of days, origination of alternative loans, known as “non-QM lending,” came to an abrupt halt.  Non-QM investors worry about risk in an economy shaken by COVID-19 and have stopped buying new loans.

Non-QM lenders now have loans sitting in their pipeline with no buyers.  This creates a problem for...